November 4, onshore and offshore yuan against the U.S. dollar exchange rate have appeared larger gains. wind data show that as of November 4, 16:30 close, the onshore yuan against the dollar exchange rate of 7.0974, recovered the “7.1” mark, up 276 basis points over the previous trading day, the day's highest intraday touched 7.0858, the highest. 7.0858.

　　More reflect the expectations of international investors offshore yuan against the dollar exchange rate also appeared larger gains, November 4, the highest intraday touched 7.0870 points, also regained the “7.1” mark, the maximum intraday increase was close to 500 basis points. As of the “Securities Daily” reporter, the offshore yuan against the dollar exchange rate in the “7.1” up and down small fluctuations.

　　Why did the yuan exchange rate rise? Jufeng investment adviser senior investment adviser Zhu Huarai told “Securities Daily” reporter, November 4, the yuan against the dollar exchange rate appeared stronger rebound, on the one hand, lies in the weakening of the U.S. dollar; on the other hand, lies in the recent launch of a series of China's counter-cyclical policy to improve the market's expectations, enhance the market's optimism about the recovery of the economy and the valuation of the repair of the expected, but also led to the trend of the inflow of international funds.

　　As it said, on November 4, the dollar index retracement, the day's intraday decline of more than 0.50%. As of press time, the dollar index reported 103.7280 points. However, a long time to see, recently due to the market by the “Trump deal”, the dollar index from October since the overall upward trend, from the end of September near 100 rose to 104 near the end of a month's time, up 3.11%.

　　Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, analyzed the “Securities Daily” reporter, said the dollar index has risen sharply since October, from 101 below the end of September rose to more than 104. Currently the foreign exchange market trading focus on the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the United States economic data overall performance is strong, inflation unexpectedly exceeded expectations, the market on the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to be significantly downgraded.

　　In Bloomberg industry research senior credit strategy analyst Willy Chen (Timothy Tan), considering the direction of the U.S. fiscal balance, the Fed may be the only institution that can provide relief. But the Fed's rate cuts will have a negative impact, and the Fed's sharp rate cuts may drive arbitrage funds out of the U.S. market, thus weakening the liquidity support that has been provided by it. Without a new source of liquidity, U.S. financial stability may be threatened. In order to prevent asset prices from plummeting, the Fed may have to restart quantitative easing, playing the last liquidity provider, the overall impact or will be a significant weakening of the dollar.

　　As far as the RMB exchange rate is concerned, Wen Bin believes that, in the short term, in the interest rate cut deal and seasonal settlement demand both superimposed resonance, at least the end of this year and early next year, the pressure of RMB depreciation will be significantly reduced.

　　Zhu Hua Lei believes that the RMB exchange rate in the short term will remain within a reasonable range of narrow oscillation, showing signs of stabilization.