reply Why soybean imports have increased significantly

According to customs data, China imported 12.02 million tons of soybeans in May, an increase of 24.3% year-on-year, setting a new record for monthly imports. the cumulative imports from January to May were 42.31 million tons, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year. Industry insiders said that the arrival of soybeans in June may further increase to about 13 million tons. In the case of record domestic soybean production last year and a structural surplus, what is the reason for the significant increase in soybean imports? Will it have an impact on the domestic market? How can the stability of soybean imports be guaranteed?　　Large production and demand gap is the main reason　　China Agricultural University, School of Economics and Management, Professor Si Wei believes that the root cause of China's record high soybean imports is the large gap between production and demand, which is behind both the demand-side factors, but also the production side of the problem. From the demand side, China's soybean crushing demand is growing rapidly, driving the total demand increase. With the improvement of the living standards of China's residents, the residents of food consumption from "eat well" to "eat well" "eat nutritious and healthy" transformation, the residents of the food chain moved up, the demand for protein from In the past, the demand for protein shifted from cereal-based to animal-based food. Soybean meal is indispensable protein feed for large-scale production of livestock, poultry and aquatic products farming industry, as the scale of the farming industry continues to expand, the rapid growth in demand for soybean consumption, from 1996 to the present, soybean consumption has nearly tripled, soybean demand of more than 100 million tons.　　Compared with the fast-growing demand for soybeans, China's soybean production development is relatively slow. 1996 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of soybean production is only 1.66%. There are various reasons for the slow development of soybean production. Among them, low yields and low comparative returns are one of the major reasons limiting the development of soybean production. Soybean yields are only one-third that of corn and wheat and one-fourth that of rice, and the comparative returns from planting crops such as corn are higher, which makes farmers lack the incentive to plant soybeans. China's soybean yields are lower than those of the United States and Brazil. In 2022, the global average soybean yield is 182.67 kg/acre, the U.S. soybean yield is 222.00 kg/acre, and the Brazilian soybean yield is 209.33 kg/acre, while China's soybean yield is 131.83 kg/acre, which is only 72.16% of the global, 59.38% of the U.S., and 62.98% of Brazil. This shows that China's soybean yields have a lot of room for improvement.　　Objectively speaking, China's agricultural resource endowment is limited, in the case of ensuring absolute food security, basic self-sufficiency in grain, completely rely on domestic production of soybeans to meet demand is not realistic, the need to fill the domestic supply gap through imports. 1996 after China liberalized the soybean market, from net exporters of soybeans to net importers of soybeans, soybean imports continue to increase, soybean imports in 2020 for the first time exceeded 100 million tons. Industry experts said that with 100 million tons of imports, converted into arable land resources need 761 million acres, accounting for 43.30% of the total sown area of grain that year. Therefore, the import of soybeans is also an inevitable choice under the constraints of China's arable land resources.　　Squeeze domestic market space　　Depending on the quality and use of soybeans, domestic soybeans and imported soybeans form two relatively independent markets in the country, with domestic soy protein mainly used in the food sector and imported soybeans mainly used in the crushing and feed sectors. "This does not mean that domestic soybean production is completely unaffected by imported soybeans, nor does it mean that the domestic soybean market is completely divided between the two markets, the influx of imported soybeans will also squeeze the space for the development of domestic soybeans." Si Wei said.　　On the one hand, a large number of soybean imports will trigger price fluctuations in the domestic soybean market. Soybeans are the most internationalized food varieties in China, with strong linkages to the international market. Unlike wheat, corn and rice imports to implement quota management, China's soybean market is completely open to imported soybeans, any movement in the international market will be quickly transmitted to the domestic, triggering domestic soybean market fluctuations. At present, China's soybean imports account for one-third of international soybean production and more than 60% of global soybean trade. The rapid increase in imports makes the domestic soybean market and the international soybean market more and more closely linked. Moreover, China does not have enough say in the international soybean market, nor does it have control over soybean pricing. The soybean market and its associated upstream and downstream industries are more vulnerable to the impact of soybean market fluctuations.　On the other hand, a large number of soybean imports will squeeze the sales market for domestic soybeans. Although domestic soybeans and imported soybeans have different uses, they are substitutes for each other. Domestic soybeans can be used for both food processing and crushing. When domestic food processing demand is weak, domestic soybeans can enter the crushing market to balance supply and demand, but low-priced imported soybeans block this channel and increase domestic soybean production capacity, which is difficult to digest through the crushing market. This makes the domestic soybean sales market narrow. Last year, domestic soybean production exceeded 20 million tons for the first time, and domestic consumption demand for soybeans was only about 15 million tons. In addition, China's main soybean production areas are mainly located in the northeast, soybean crushing enterprises are mainly located in the coastal and along the Yangtze River area, production and marketing separation, soybean crushing enterprises to the northeast to purchase soybeans because of long distances, prices and other reasons, the enthusiasm is not high, resulting in a structural surplus of domestic soybeans.　　Improve soybean production capacity and self-sufficiency, is China's major strategic initiatives to ensure national food security. This year, China continues to implement soybean capacity enhancement project, around the variety, technology, machine harvest loss reduction and other aspects of efforts to improve soybean yield level, to ensure stable soybean production and increase production. The person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said that to sustainably improve soybean production capacity and self-sufficiency, the core is the income, the fundamental rely on sales, the key in the policy. To integrate government, market, scientific research, finance and other aspects of power, focusing on the whole chain of industry research comprehensive solutions to provide strong support for sustainable improvement of soybean and oil self-sufficiency rate. To achieve a virtuous cycle and sustainable development, the domestic soybean industry must vigorously develop processing, not only to produce, but also to sell and sell well. To focus on solving the quality and price difference between domestic and foreign soybean raw materials, promote the optimal layout of soybean crushing enterprises near the main production areas, develop deep processing of soybean products, improve the industry-related supporting service system, research and overcome the bottlenecks that restrict the collection of more domestic soybeans, and continue to grow bigger and stronger domestic soybean industry. Establish and improve the demand-oriented technology system, efficient and smooth production and marketing system and stable and perfect policy system to continue to enhance the competitiveness of the domestic soybean industry. To systematically optimize the soybean industry system, vigorously develop domestic high-oil soybean crushing and processing, refine and deepen food processing, support the development of high-value-added protein deep processing, and actively expand the incremental space for domestic soybean consumption.　　Promote the diversification of import sources