reply Global wheat seaborne imports keep rebounding

As the second largest grain crop in the world after corn, wheat has a wide market demand and sowing range, and has therefore become an important commodity in international trade. Flour produced from wheat is an important raw material for many countries, and a shortage of supply could cause a serious food crisis. With the support of cold chain transportation, it is technically not difficult to transport wheat across borders or even continents. According to WTO statistics, wheat from international trade is an important source of market demand, supporting about a quarter of the supply, and 80% of the international trade in wheat is done through maritime transport. For net grain importing countries, the percentage is even higher. WTO and the International Grains Council (IGC) have jointly developed a new monitoring platform that provides data on wheat maritime transport through port data (including aggregated data updated twice a month and real-time data reflecting short-term trade changes) to support food safety and supply chain risk prevention. .Data show that global wheat seaborne shipments continued to be strong in the second half of May, with approximately 7.7 million tons of wheat arriving at monitored ports, 40% higher than the same period last year and one-third higher than the average of the past three years. Geopolitical conflicts have had a significant impact on global grain markets, with a particularly pronounced impact on net grain importers. However, along with the increase in global wheat supply, increased competition in the market, and the entry into force of the Black Sea Grain Agreement, coupled with a significant decline in maritime logistics costs along with oil prices and excess capacity, global maritime trade flows have accelerated since the end of 2022. In terms of import and export country distribution, Russia exported 3 million tons, making it the largest wheat exporter. Australia ranked second, exporting more than 2 million tons. Further behind are Canada (1.4 million tons), the United States (800,000 tons), Ukraine (500,000 tons) and France (400,000 tons). The net importers of global seaborne wheat during this monitoring period were mainly China, Indonesia, Algeria, Egypt and Spain. The import and export demand of these major wheat trading countries has a more pronounced impact on the global wheat logistics network due to its size, and also to a certain extent to protect the interests of producers and food security of consumer markets.The WTO estimates that global seaborne imports of wheat will reach 140 million tons in 2023, slightly higher than the previous year by 5%. However, the recovery of wheat imports is uneven, with factors such as climate change and market consumption demand having a more pronounced impact on the scale of imports. Imports declined in parts of Africa, South and Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and increased in West Asia, East Asia, North Africa, Europe and Oceania. North Africa wheat crop failure, the need to import to fill the market gap. imports in the second half of May amounted to 1.9 million tons, nearly twice as much as the same period last year. imports from July 2022 to June 2023 marketing year of about 29 million tons, an increase of 9%. Performance in specific countries, North Africa's Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia wheat imports grew faster, Egypt has declined. West Asia's wheat seaborne imports also performed strongly. Imports in the first five months of the year than the same period last year, 42% higher than the previous quarter, and this trend is expected to continue. West Asia and North Africa wheat seaborne imports mainly from Russia, the first five months of this year's imports of 1.7 million tons and 1.6 million tons, respectively. In contrast, wheat imports from West, East and Central Africa were significantly lower than the previous quarter's level. East Africa's wheat imports fell significantly in Djibouti, where the imports are mainly destined for Ethiopia. A good local wheat crop in Ethiopia reduced import demand to some extent. East Africa's Madagascar, Kenya's wheat imports were also lower than the previous quarter, but Somalia and Tanzania increased slightly. West Africa's Nigeria, Ghana, Liberia and Togo's wheat imports by sea decreased, and the size of the decrease exceeded the size of the increase in Côte d'Ivoire and Guinea. Wheat imports from Caribbean countries increased rapidly in May, with the fastest growth to Cuba, Haiti, and Trinidad and Tobago, but were still 16 percent below last year. The decrease in South Asia's seaborne wheat imports was mainly affected by Iran, which has experienced longer delays in port unloading in recent months, affecting wheat imports. Some Southeast Asian and Central African countries have the longest wheat seaborne time, with wheat imports from Indonesia and the Philippines increasing faster. West Asian countries, led by the rapid growth of wheat imports from Saudi Arabia and Turkey increased by 25% over the same period of the previous year. It is worth noting that the volume of wheat imports and exports has a clear relationship with the prices of the relevant transactions between the parties. In addition to the actual market supply and demand, the behavior of international investors using wheat as a financial investment target, as well as changes in the value of major currencies also have a direct and important impact on the price of wheat in the international market.