reply Economic Watch: Why China-US trade volume shrinks?

According to data from China's General Administration of Customs, the total value of trade between China and the U.S. in the first five months was 1.89 trillion yuan (RMB, same below), down 5.5% year-on-year, much weaker than the overall performance of China's foreign trade, which grew 4.7% year-on-year during the same period. Among them, China's exports to the United States 1.38 trillion yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year.　　The reasons for the shrinking trade volume between China and the U.S. are manifold. Zhang Xiaotao, director of the School of International Economics and Trade at Central University of Finance and Economics, said in an interview with China News Service that, in addition to political factors causing obvious disruptions to China-US economic and trade relations, the world's economic recovery is unstable and enterprises' expectations for the future are uncertain; some orders from the United States have been transferred to Mexico, Southeast Asia and South Asia, which has also affected the scale of China-US trade to a certain extent.　　In Zhang Xiaotao's view, the current trade volume between China and the United States has declined, especially China's exports to the United States fell, is in the global industrial division of labor pattern adjustment, regional economic integration process accelerated in the context of a normal phenomenon. This indicates that China's reliance on traditional export markets such as the United States and Europe is decreasing, and the market pattern is becoming more diversified, which does not mean that the economic and trade relations between China and the United States are "decoupled".　　The recent visits to China by Tesla CEO Musk and other executives of U.S. companies show that the "decoupling" of U.S.-China trade and commerce is a false proposition.　　In the words of former chief economist of the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, although the U.S. policy of imposing tariffs on China has an impact on bilateral trade, the behavior of consumers and businesses has more influence than political decisions.　　The chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, Huaganglin also previously revealed that China "will always be a very important investment destination" for U.S. companies, U.S. companies are also increasing investment in China, "most companies are not shifting supply chains".　　However, some analysts reminded that the shrinking trade volume between the United States and China does not mean that the economic and trade "decoupling" of the two countries, but behind some deep-seated problems can not be ignored.　　Cui Xiaomin, an associate researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote that bilateral trade between China and the United States has steadily recovered in 2022, mainly led by strong domestic demand and price factors in the United States. Last year, NAFTA members, ASEAN, the EU and other trading partners all increased their exports to the U.S. significantly, with a faster growth rate than China's exports to the U.S.　　Cui Xiaomin said that in total U.S. trade in goods, China's share fell from 14.8 percent in 2020 to 12.9 percent in 2022, while the shares of Canada and Mexico steadily increased over the same period, with Canada rising from 13.9 percent to 14.8 percent. On the U.S. import side, China's share is also declining, with a 16.4% share in 2022, down 5 percentage points from 21.4% in 2017. This reflects to some extent the decline in the relative competitiveness of Chinese products in the United States.　　It is worth noting that Chinese foreign trade enterprises are already actively promoting product transformation and upgrading. Electric passenger cars, lithium batteries, solar cells and other "new three", is becoming an important support for China's exports.　　Zhang Xiaotao believes that, in addition to enterprises to strengthen market development and product development, China should continue to improve the business environment, and strive for all possible opportunities for cooperation, to buy time and space for the transformation and upgrading of domestic industries. In the long run, the prospects for trade between China and the United States can still be "cautiously optimistic".