The Congressional Budget Office released its 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook report on the 28th, showing that the U.S. federal government debt held by the public as a percentage of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) will continue to rise over the next 30 years, and is expected to reach a record 181% in FY 2053.
The report projects that the federal government debt held by the public will be 98 percent of U.S. GDP in fiscal year 2023 and will rise to 107 percent in fiscal year 2029, exceeding historical highs.
The report warns that the high and growing debt will slow U.S. economic growth and push up interest payments to U.S. debt holders, posing significant risks to the fiscal and economic outlook.
The report also said that in the long run, the federal government budget deficit as a proportion of GDP is also on the rise. 2023 federal government budget deficit equivalent to 5.8% of GDP in fiscal year 2027, down to 5% in fiscal year 2027, and then rise each year, to reach 10% in fiscal year 2053. In the past century, this share exceeded 10% only during World War II and the New Crown epidemic.
Data show that over the 30-year period from FY 1993 to FY 2022, the annual average of the federal government debt held by the public as a share of GDP and the federal government budget deficit as a share of GDP are 57% and 3.7%, respectively.
The Congressional Budget Office issues an annual report that presents budget projections and economic forecasts for the next 30 years under the assumption that current tax and spending laws remain essentially unchanged.